Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 3.313618 3.979015 4.723471 5.615136 6.650948 7.813042 9.212119
2025-05-04 2.529652 3.427499 4.538026 5.999715 7.858467 10.127466 13.089044
2025-05-11 1.905577 2.867406 4.163638 6.009485 8.536269 11.835209 16.421427
2025-05-18 1.425341 2.359842 3.720157 5.796164 8.824405 13.009426 19.141121
2025-05-25 1.074491 1.945354 3.306545 5.518416 8.932503 13.891712 21.494784
2025-06-01 0.871058 1.708818 3.103544 5.497321 9.375817 15.252092 24.609264
2025-06-08 0.725431 1.533810 2.960279 5.533300 9.887428 16.735103 28.007523
2025-06-15 0.602453 1.370066 2.802616 5.511367 10.285649 18.058138 31.249239
2025-06-22 0.473735 1.163707 2.529061 5.239471 10.219021 18.613125 33.300151
2025-06-29 0.397550 1.047038 2.401357 5.207686 10.553194 19.839110 36.515803
2025-07-06 0.334767 0.944258 2.281620 5.169494 10.862697 21.036774 39.759898
2025-07-13 0.312432 0.931118 2.344776 5.498024 11.883087 23.546145 45.415520
2025-07-20 0.280424 0.888230 2.340131 5.694793 12.686406 25.759921 50.767537
2025-07-27 0.257432 0.863566 2.372758 5.975113 13.683841 28.408491 57.086839
2025-08-03 0.219507 0.787549 2.271567 5.948635 14.057258 29.922913 61.455852
2025-08-10 0.178119 0.688773 2.095428 5.725492 13.994088 30.594681 64.306852
2025-08-17 0.141928 0.593786 1.908822 5.446963 13.775629 30.935891 66.543949
2025-08-24 0.121623 0.544385 1.833404 5.424852 14.112912 32.399995 71.022150
2025-08-31 0.106189 0.506971 1.783942 5.459993 14.580720 34.160045 76.186419
2025-09-07 0.091294 0.466252 1.716533 5.438173 14.912470 35.658757 80.920127
2025-09-14 0.072602 0.402729 1.565827 5.169408 14.627354 35.828386 82.972438
2025-09-21 0.062226 0.369960 1.504761 5.137980 14.913044 37.242877 87.663335
2025-09-28 0.053243 0.339584 1.444791 5.100231 15.177722 38.627511 92.371878